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Zimbabwe's chaos theory

Vince Musewe says the administration of the voting process is key to the upcoming elections

"Except the Lord build the house, they labour in vain that build it;" Unfortunately, we conveniently forget this part of Psalm 127.1, and Zimbabwe is a typical example where the devil has taken over. Because of this, the foundation and universal principles of building a stable and sustainable democracy have been eclipsed by the selfish ambition of power, greed and corruption.

This is probably my last letter to you Zimbabweans in the Diaspora, before we go into a new Zimbabwe that is based on the respect of our rights and freedom. However, before we get there, I think it is important to reflect on the recent events, lest we forget where we have come from.

I am flabbergasted at Rita Makarau, an allegedly respected judge, who has presided over the embarrassing process of special votes. The assumption that judges are competent managers must now surely go out of the window. The saddest part of it is the blame game for the fiasco and sheer incompetence is being defended by blaming the opposition parties. There is absolutely no way failure to process 80,000 votes can result in the successful processing of 6 million votes. It is therefore impossible for the coming elections to be free and fair as long as the same people preside over them. If I had the power, I would immediately replace the ZEC because they have failed the test.

I sincerely hope the SADC and the AU do not disappoint as they are well known for. I have seen their cars driving around town and at local hotels. Rather a waste of resources for me given that there is impending fraud at the ZEC. What is the point of observing a fraudulent process? Simply because there is little violence does not mean that an election will be free and fair. It is the administration of the voting process that is key.

The townships are colorful these days, with red shirts and caps, green and yellow regalia. I hear that there was a stampede recently in Chitungwiza and some one died there. We have not been told why, but I hope it was not a stampede for silly shirts and caps. It is rather pitiful that the masses do not learn from history and always forget why they are poor. Those bearing gifts are everywhere, hoping to get a seat in parliament, it is a comedy. The sheer foolishness of the masse is evident everywhere, once again they are being told how important they are.

We must all be thankful to Baba Jukwa who has shown us how rotten ZANU (PF) is. My hope is that he never reveals himself and continues to expose incompetence, graft and corruption, even if the next government is MDC. We need you Baba Jukwa because you are an essential part of an accountable leadership we wish to create in Zimbabwe.

The chaos team is hard at work and even Tsvangirai has admitted that elections will be rigged. From my conversations with ordinary Zimbabweans, it seems that most are anticipating two scenarios.

The first scenario is a rigged election, where ZANU (PF) wins majority seats in parliament and the presidency. The AU and SADC endorse the result because there has been no significant violence. This was the aim of the chaos team in the first place. It will be a sad day for all of us and democracy if that happens. In such a case, Zimbabwe will not recover and we will see the economic situation remaining the same if not worse. We will see intensified indigenization, the raiding by ZANU (PF) cronies of any company that shows signs of life followed by capital flight and zero foreign investments except from the Chinese. Zimbabwe will become a Chinese colony and the looting will continue.

The second scenario is that of an outright win by the MDC. In this scenario, we may get a bit of trouble from the generals, but we expect the SADC and AU to come out strongly, if not militarily, and protect the vote. We may also see ordinary folk going out in their numbers to protect their vote. We could also see an isolation of the generals and those resisting change. That would be good for democracy. In such a case we would see Zimbabwe slowly stabilizing politically as the losers accept the new reality, and we will witness the economic revival that we are all anxious for.

The question is what us ordinary Zimbabweans should do if ZANU (PF) successfully rigs the elections. I think we should not rest, we should quickly establish a new movement of ordinary folk that seeks and demands democracy and accountability and the re-run of free and fair elections. We cannot accept that its okay and it should be business as usual. That would be irresponsible. We can't leave that responsibility to the opposition political parties alone. The only hurdle we face is the apathy of Zimbabweans. It is sad that most people are more concerned about their careers and their bank accounts and that is what the chaos team continues to take advantage of. It's disgusting.

Those in the Diaspora can't do much on the ground of course and that is also a major drawback. I however insist that there is something we must do if it is evident that our vote has been stolen.

I leave you with much hope and expectation that at last the dictator will go and we shall have an opportunity to contribute to a better Zimbabwe, in this life time. If that doesn't happen we are damned but we must no sit back and complain.

Vince Musewe is an economist based in Harare. You may contact him on [email protected]

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