ANC supporters loyal, but feeling uneasy

Almost half of ANC supporters feel uneasy about the events which took place at Polokwane and agree that the ANC is a different party in the aftermath of the conference. Moreover, 15% of ANC supporters indicated that they will vote for an opposition party in 2009.

These are some of the results of the latest Ipsos Markinor poll, conducted from 3 to 22 October 2008.

Personal in-home interviews were conducted with 3,500 randomly selected adults (16 years and older) from all walks of life and geographical areas in South Africa. The results of the sample of 3,500 are weighted and projected onto the adult South African population and are representative of the views of this population in terms of province, gender, race, age, working status and other demographic features.

To get the views of voters, results are filtered by those 18 years and older.

It is very important to keep it in mind that this poll was conducted before the registration weekend of 8 and 9 November and that all fieldwork was finished before the Convention of COPE (Congress of the People) on 1 and 2 November in Sandton.

It is also very important to keep it in mind that the list on the ballot paper of this survey did not include the name of the Congress of the People (COPE). Respondents do, however, have the freedom to write the name of any political party on the ballot paper if they choose to and they can even spoil their ballot - as is the case in normal elections! Respondents complete and seal the ballots themselves before giving it back to the interviewer, thus ensuring a "secret vote". This technique is standard practice at Ipsos Markinor since 1990.

All sample surveys are subject to statistical error and the results for this poll have to be evaluated against this background. Depending on the response rate, the sample error for the poll as a whole is between 0.72% and 1.66%.

If we look at the results of all eligible voters - i.e. South Africans who are 18 years and older, the findings emerging from the last few measurements are fairly consistent

• ANC support is down marginally from May 2008

• DA support has increased marginally (increase is within the margin of error)

• The percentage of undecided voters has grown

• As always, it is difficult to determine accurate readings of the support of smaller parties

Support for political parties amongst eligible voters at the end of October 2008:

When asking about preference for a political party, the question is always phrased as: "If there were national elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation would you vote for? " Respondents are then handed a ballot paper and asked to draw a cross next to their party of choice. This ballot paper

contains the names of the biggest political parties in the country (as seen in previous surveys), their logos and acronyms.

However, this is probably not a true reflection of the current political landscape in the country which has become more fluid since Mbeki was recalled and dissidents within the ANC are formally rallying to form a new political party.

The above table also does not reflect likely voters but rather an unqualified view of eligible voters.

During the run up to an election, it is best practice to determine likely voters within the sample of eligible voters (reflected in the table above). A likely voter is someone who is 18 years plus, has a valid ID, is registered or intends to register, is likely to vote and wants to vote. The sample of likely voters is the best possible reflection of how an election will unfold should it be called tomorrow.

In applying the likely voter model, we calculated that there are about 20, 551 000 South Africans in this category.

This compares well with the IEC's current voter's roll (note: keep in mind that voters can still register to vote until the date of the election is announced).

Among this group of likely voters, the results at the end of October 2008 look as follows:

Amongst likely voters, ANC support seems arguably high in the light of recent political developments such as Mbeki's recall, the establishment of COPE and the subsequent defection of a number of leading ANC figures to this new group. These developments coupled with key decisions to be taken by the ANC with regard to leadership will most likely impact on support for the ANC in the months to come.

Although the impact of the latest political developments could not be measured directly due to the timing of the survey, a number of aspects, which were measured, can provide some insight into possible shifts in ANC support.

Taking a closer look at ANC supporters only (i.e. those who selected the ANC on the ballot paper), there is definitely a battle for the hearts and minds of traditional ANC supporters. We tested their feelings on a number of issues and ANC supporters had to indicate whether they strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the statements.

Looking at ANC supporters only, the key take-out is as follows:

o 46% of ANC supporters feel that the ANC post-Polokwane is a different party

o 42% reported that the faction fighting in the ANC makes them uneasy and 38% indicated that they will take a wait-and-see stance before voting for the ANC, which is a reflection of uncertainty amongst ANC supporters

o ANC supporters are equally split on whether they can trust the party: 37% said that they trust the ANC less today than in 1994, opposed to 39% who said that they trust the ANC

Having determined how they feel about the party, we asked ANC supporters to give us some indication of how these feelings could translate into possible behaviour or action. We can make the following deductions:

o 19% of ANC supporters indicated that the forced resignation of ex-President Thabo Mbeki and the departure of some ministers, could make a difference in how they would vote

o 20% of ANC supporters felt that it would be a positive step if a part of the ANC breaks away to form an opposition party

o 29% of ANC supporters reported that they think that opposition parties should collaborate to provide voters with a viable alternative to the ANC

o 15% of ANC supporters indicated that they could be voting for an opposition party in the up-coming election

Based on the above, it is quite clear that approximately between three and five in every ten ANC supporters are not very comfortable with the ANC at present and that around 15% to 20% could act on this unease and consider defection to other political parties.

The detailed results to the individual statements are listed below:

The questions to be answered during the next few months until the election will be whether opposition parties (including COPE) can benefit from these feelings amongst ANC supporters and lure them away from the party and whether the ANC leadership will address the concerns of their supporters or whether they will rely on the fact that ANC supporters in the past have loyally voted for their party.

Source: http://ipsos-markinor.co.za, November 30, 2008

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