Did racial identity hold sway in the 2019 elections?
16 May 2019
The 8 May 2019 elections were held at a time and in a climate that saw most South Africans collectively concerned about the economy, corruption and State capture.
If trends, pollsters and pundits are to be believed, the natural course of events that should have followed is that those who offered adequate policy and practical alternatives to the status quo would be rewarded and the culprits punished. This wasn’t quite the case. Some old voting habits and behaviours held sway, while newer trends emerged, the most important of which was that far too many potential voters didn’t bother to register to vote or did not turn up to vote on 8 May and in the case of 235 472 voters, spoilt their vote at the polling booth. In addition, and despite the population pyramid in South Africa, it was mainly the young who were the most disengaged.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s faction in the ANC bled support, as did the DA. Net winners were the EFF, the IFP and the FF+. While pundits predicted increased support for the EFF, the IFP surprised many as the comeback kid. The FF+ is being described as the dark horse in the race (no pun intended), having increased its support from under 1% in 2014, to 2.3% in 2019. New kids on the block who have a foot in the parliamentary door include the African Transformation Movement and GOOD.
The large menu of 48 parties notwithstanding, with a smorgasbord of single-issue parties and more encompassing ones, large numbers of South Africans voted along racial lines. This, even though most of the parties contesting elections emphasised their non-racial and inclusive character, other than Black First Land First (BLF). BLF overtly stated its position as being a party for black people and by implication, got black-only votes, albeit a handful. The ANC and the DA received their largest bloc of support - at around 70% - from black and white voters, respectively. The voters were almost exclusively black in the case of the EFF, and white in the case of the FF+. The IFP recouped its support in rural KZN amongst its Zulu base and Patricia de Lille’s GOOD peeled away some of the Coloured vote from the DA. These trends, while not precise, were gleaned from an analysis of the demographics of voting stations. The analysis of voting behaviours will no doubt be populated in the coming weeks by academics and election analysts and will form the basis of the Centre for Unity in Diversity’s second Roundtable in June 2019.