Blackouts - apartheid to blame - Zuma. The facts

"South Africa's energy problems were a product of apartheid and government was not to blame for the current blackouts", President Jacob Zuma said on Friday.

This has got to be one of the inaner of his claims of 2014, ranking up with there with his assertion that the spending of R245 million on his home at Nkandla did not improve its value.

Here are the facts.

With the fall of apartheid in 1994, the Government inherited an Eskom that was generating far too much electricity -  to the extent that some power stations needed to be "mothballed" (taken out of service).

The new government rightly decided to embark on a massive countrywide electrification programme aimed at bringing electricity to millions of additional homes.

As a result of this and a then thriving economy, the demand for electricity increased considerably.

By the second half of the 1990's Eskom planners predicted, with uncanny accuracy, that electricity demand would exceed supply by 2007.

Because the planners knew that it took 10 years to complete major new power station projects, they argued that they needed an immediate go-ahead to build new power stations.

The Government said NO, that it had other priorities (like paying for the Arms Deal?).

It was not until the blackouts of 2007, 10 years later, that the Government gave the go-ahead for new plant construction. The new plants, including the long delayed Medupi and Kusile, will be only be fully operational by about 2018.

To quote then President Mbeki (2007):"When Eskom said to the Government: ' We think we need to invest more in terms of electricity generation', we said no, not now, later. We were wrong, Eskom was right, We were wrong."

Meanwhile, the old power stations have been over-worked and under-maintained. And they are breaking down. The completion of the new power stations is years behind schedule.

The probability of breakdowns was further increased at the beginning of 2014, when the government, fearing a loss of votes, exerted pressure on Eskom to keep the lights on until after the election, whatever the cost.  The means : cutting back further on maintenance. The cost: further power station failure and even less electricity in the future.

The fact is that the demand for electricity will continue to exceed supply (especially in winter) for years to come. And it is the government's fault, Mister Zuma.

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