Brexit will cause economic devastation – or not
And neither will a vote to Remain solve the EU’s political problems
On Thursday the Brits will decide whether their future lies in or outside of the European Union. As the spectre of Brexit (short for “British Exit”) looms large in opinion polls, many in the Anglosphere wonder what the world will look like if Britain turns its back on a politically integrated Europe. Much of the debate has been technical and opaque. But common sense, instead of economic mysticism, may give us a glimpse at a likely future after Brexit. Intelligent speculation, if you will.
David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, warns that Brexit will put a bomb under his country’s economy. It being the fifth largest economy in the world, the rest of us are bound to feel the aftershocks. For one, the Brits are heavily invested in South African bonds and equities. Apparently a Brexit-induced panic may prompt a sell-off of these holdings. Further afield a pantheon of economists, bankers and international institutions have endorsed Cameron's warning to a greater or lesser extent. And so international coverage of a possible Brexit has been very gloomy.
It’s important to note that the success of the Remain campaign depends heavily on the authority of these experts, but especially on their worst-case scenarios. People the world over vote on impressions, not policies. The most compelling of such impressions have a distinct emotional quality. But given that ordinary Brits have almost no emotional bond with the somewhat aloof European Union and its institutions (as opposed to the European continent), Remain cannot possibly win the referendum on the battleground of hope. The deployment of ‘Project Fear’ on the side of Remain is thus a strategic necessity, and a perfectly reasonable one at that.
But how credible are the disaster predictions beyond the rough and tumble of British politics? Trade is the schwerpunkt. All of the dire warnings seem to be predicated on one worst-case scenario: the EU erecting punitive trade barriers to British imports in the aftermath of a Leave vote. It would then become very expensive for British businesses to trade with their EU counterparts. Multinationals will leave London for bases inside the EU.