Cyril Ramaphosa these days, Richard Poplak wrote in Daily Maverick at the beginning of October, resembles a convict unexpectedly released from solitary confinement who now inhabits a penthouse suite in a seven-star Dubai hotel (“Lost in transition no more, Cyril Ramaphosa is living his best life”).

This hyperbole says quite a bit about Ramaphosa's current state of mind.

Particularly relevant are Ramaphosa's performances during his visit to the USA at the end of September: at the SA-US Interactive Business Forum in New York; the Business Council for International Understanding (BCIU); and of course, on September 24 at the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Ramaphosa was upbeat, radiating optimism and self-confidence. The president presented a rosy impression of his government and of South Africa.

How come is Ramaphosa so buoyant?

The answer to this question guides us to the peculiar world of Ramaphosa's surrealist discourse. In it, Ramaphosa condemns his own party’s rule of the past thirty years – strange indeed. In doing so, Ramaphosa reveals his own particular political vulnerability.

Let me elaborate.

Ramaphosa condemns the ANC

Whenever Ramaphosa was on the podium in the USA, he used the same and apparently his only trump card: the government of national unity" (GNU). This was the one big thing that Ramaphosa was particularly upbeat and triumphant about - and it really is a big thing. Indeed, it is a miracle. South Africa's second miracle, according to the president.

We are now in a new era of great promise, Ramaphosa declared. In this second miracle, the public sided with the inclusive and unifying ”GNU”. This claim is confirmed by the rise in both ANC and DA public support according to a recent opinion poll by the Social Research Foundation.

The leaders of the GNU are making good progress in solving the country's most pressing problems, so the president claimed. The "spirit of Nelson Mandela", Ramaphopsa explained, was the driving force behind the formation of the GNU. The country's economy has started to improve, and investor confidence is rising. We have good prospects and a hopeful outlook on the future. South Africa is on the road to recovery - all thanks to the second miracle incarnated in the GNU.

On 14 October, Ramaphosa spoke fervently in the same vein during an ANC meeting outside Luthuli House in Johannesburg.

So, what, under closer scrutiny is Ramaphosa saying? Is he not now implicitly confessing to the world his party's decades-long failed rule? Is he not showing relief that a miracle in the guise of the GNU has now at last brought this failure to an end?

This is quite remarkable – strange, even. The president and leader of the ANC has effectively welcomed his party’s decline at the ballot box on May 29, since that is precisely what has made the "second miracle" possible. This dramatic loss of votes forced the ANC to form a new government together with its arch-opponent, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and others. This loss is what bestowed upon South Africa its second miracle – a government freed from the unbridled dominance of Ramaphosa's own party.

One can hardly imagine a more surreal political exposition and, at the same time, self-condemning judgment of the ANC coming from none other than the ANC's own leader. Where else has a party leader ever praised the decline of his own party so much?

It is particularly striking that Ramaphosa did not reserve this condemnation of the ANC for the confidential inner rooms of the party itself but trumpeted it on the most prominent world stages. All needed to hear this, you see, so that all could begin to regain their broken trust and disappointment in South Africa as it was under ANC dominance.

At the same time, it is understandable why Ramaphosa would make this confession in public. He is keenly aware that international opinion about South Africa has changed drastically: from a South Africa that was a global darling in 1994 to a South Africa that has descended into the embodiment of decline and failure. Private confessions of this failure are, therefore, not sufficient, and the second "miracle" of the ANC's deterioration and the resulting GNU must be shouted from the rooftops.

But this comes at a high cost for Ramaphosa: he has revealed his own fatal political weakness – his Achilles heel.

Ramaphosa's Achilles heel

Ramaphosa's Achilles heel is precisely the "miracle" of the GNU that he boasts about. Since the GNU is a “miracle”, it must clearly be preserved at all costs because if it fails, the miracle is gone, and with it also Ramaphosa's political legacy.

So far, it has only been Ramaphosa's GNU partners, especially the DA, who have revealed their weakness within the new government. This traces back to before the election, when the DA focused almost all its energy on preventing the dreaded "doomsday coalition" between the ANC and EFF.

Within the government, this public weakness puts the DA and parties like the FF Plus in a very difficult predicament: they are impelled to make concessions to the ANC so as to prevent the ANC from walking away from the GNU and embracing the “doomsday” scenario.

But now, Ramaphosa has exposed his own weakness. It is that the president needs the GNU every bit as much as the DA does. In other words, Ramaphosa’s ANC is just as dependent on the DA as the DA is on it. Ramaphosa must try just as hard as the DA not to offend the other in order to keep the GNU alive.

The state's diminished tools of government

Ramaphosa's dependence on the DA becomes particularly clear in view of the state’s diminished tools of government, which have deteriorated over the past decade and probably more than is generally realised.

Only in recent days has it been reported that the police minister, Senzo Mchunu, is negotiating with the private security industry with a view to expanding cooperation to try to combat the escalating onslaught of crime.

This comes amid the epidemic of organised crime, especially the rapid and widespread rise of extortion networks. Some of these, such as the construction mafia, have been operating since around 2014. Several senior government spokesmen, including the president himself, have threatened action, but effective steps still fall far short.

Infrastructure continues to deteriorate. Recently, the Railway Safety Regulator, in its State of the Safety Report of 2023/24, reported that "accidents" on the country's railway lines continue to increase. This takes lives and has a high economic toll and comes against the backdrop of damage to the rail infrastructure and a major decline in freight and passenger traffic over recent years.

Water infrastructure in many municipalities is deteriorating. Failure to replace infrastructure, including water pipes, over the past 30 years has contributed to almost half of the country's potable water being lost, according to the Deputy President in the National Assembly on 6 September. Almost half of the water municipalities purchase is lost, mainly owing to broken infrastructure. Water boards go bankrupt because dysfunctional municipalities don't pay their bills. Ferial Haffajee reported in the Daily Maverick that in just the first nine days of October, there occurred 1 604 water outages in Johannesburg. During September, there were 3 318 (that we know about).

These examples and a further endless litany of state failure make it clear that Ramaphosa urgently needs help from those who can govern more efficiently. The DA and other smaller parties in the GNU can partly provide this and, of course, also the private sector.

Ramaphosa depends on this.

The turbulent ANC house

What further weakens Ramaphosa's position is that the ANC house is apparently sharply divided over the GNU. There are strong forces in the ANC, who, in contrast to Ramaphosa, frown on the current multi-party government. They want to end it and form in its stead a government together with the EFF and the like.

Deputy President Paul Mashatile does not share Ramaphosa's sentiments about the GNU. While Ramaphosa praised the GNU miracle in New York, Mashatile said on 25 September that the election was a setback for the ANC and that the subsequently-formed GNU was not the ANC's ideal choice ("Mashatile bak mooi broodjies by land se grootste onderwysvakbond [Netwerk24, 25 September]). The GNU, Mashatile implied, is a way to ensure that the ANC is not derailed in the pursuit of its goals.

Panyaza Lesufi, Premier of Gauteng agrees with this.

Lesufi also detests the DA. He purposely derailed a provincial government together with the DA in Gauteng and evidently played a major role in ousting the DA-led government in Tshwane, contriving a new ANC government together with the EFF and ActionSA.

The bottom line is that Ramaphosa is clearly weaker in the current government than it may appear. He needs the DA and other partners as much as they need him to keep the GNU intact. Ramaphosa's stark exposure of his dependence on the GNU - and therefore on the DA - clearly demonstrated this.

Koos Malan is a constitutional jurist from Pretoria

This article was previously published in Afrikaans on Netwerk 24.