In 1987, thirty years ago, we had the holiday of our lives in Zimbabwe. The country was doing so well with good exports, successful agricultural crops, booming tourism and impressive gains in educational and health standards. Zimbabwe was working and Robert Mugabe was seen to be running a successful transition from the colonial days to a democratic future.
South Africa was then enduring some of the worst PW Botha years. Democracy seemed very far away indeed with negligible prospects for a peaceful end to apartheid. Our holiday party was entranced by Zimbabwean progress and despondent about the South African situation.
Ever the optimist, I said the difference between Zimbabwe and South Africa was one of time and scale and that what had happened in Zimbabwe would inevitably also happen in South Africa. My prophetic words cheered us all, but came back to haunt me as I was often reminded of them while South Africa emerged from its long night and Zimbabwe entered the dark years of misrule under President Mugabe.
Of course, I was wrong. South Africa is not Zimbabwe. South Africa is also not Angola. There is no inevitability about our future going as badly wrong as theirs did. But there are many parallels and useful lessons for us in both countries.
Angola had a president, Eduardo dos Santos, who ruled for 38 years. When he retired recently, he was the richest man in Angola, worth US$20 million, while most of his people live in poverty and deprivation. His successor is former minister of defence, Joao Lourenco, worth only somewhere between US$50million and US$100 million after a life spent in the military and in politics.
Even with that fortune he is reckoned to be far less corrupt than his predecessor in a country that is rated 164th out of 179 countries in the world on the Transparency International Corruption Index for 2016. Compare this with Zimbabwe at 154th in the world and contrast both with South Africa’s rating on the same Index, at 64th in the world. Given the corruption scandals that erupt in South Africa almost every day, it is difficult to credit that the immense corruption in Angola and Zimbabwe make us look almost respectable by comparison.