Succession & Factions: Fear & Hope
Notwithstanding the pressures on President Zuma to step down early, the 105th birthday anniversary of the ANC over this weekend has served to cement the view that South Africa is likely to live with the status quo of leadership personalities until – at least – December 2017.
In the interim, the ANCWL has not surprisingly backed Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma to lead the ANC. This comes on the heels of the November endorsement from COSATU that Cyril Ramaphosa would be their preferred candidate.
Mrs Zuma’s endorsement is important for two reasons. Firstly, it levels the playing field with Ramaphosa who had a small but significant head-start from the trade union movement. It also significantly implies that these two candidates are critically important in attempting a re-boot of the ANC – albeit only from 2018 onwards.
For those who perhaps thought that President Zuma himself would vacate office, the looming battles between his former wife and the Deputy President also imply that the broader formations of the party will stick it out with the current President at the helm until the end of the year.
Clearly, the continued uncertainty about Jacob Zuma’s many legal challenges and the damage an early elective conference could cause has now been dissolved into mainstream party formations. Zuma will plod on – whatever the consequences – but will face a new leadership structure by December and the distinct possibility then of either relinquishing the Presidency or hanging on for a few months into 2018 as a ceremonial and dignified exit plan is forged.