Is this the end of the Road for Mr. Mugabe
On Monday a rumor swept the country, “they” are going to pay the annual bonus to the Civil Service using “Bond Notes” denominated in US dollars instead of the real thing. By the afternoon a mini rush had developed on the banks with people trying to withdraw what they had in their accounts.
The implications were huge, if they did so and forced the banks to take them in as legitimate currency, they would bankrupt the banks overnight, cash withdrawals would do the rest. It is unlikely that anyone would accept the “Bond Notes” and they would almost certainly be rejected by the recipients.
I contacted the Minister of Finance, for whom I have a lot of respect and he replied that there was no truth in the matter. I circulated this response and went to bed a bit more at ease. In my view, had they attempted anything along these lines, given the experience of all Zimbabweans from the era of Gono and the “Bearer Cheques”, we would have seen an immediate collapse of the State. The regime would have been forced to enter into talks to form a national government and it is most likely that Mr. Mugabe, the author of the mess, would be forced into retirement in disgrace.
While there might not have been any substance to the rumor, it does reveal how fragile the situation is in Zimbabwe right now. They delayed payment of pensions by a month in November, have not paid any bonuses even though they were assured by Mr. Mugabe that they would be paid and civil service salaries will be delayed this month for the first time. Bonus payments will be carried over – and probably December pensions, into 2016.
During the GNU, the MDC demanded a full professional audit of the Civil Service, convinced that it was loaded with political appointees and ghost workers. Zanu PF resisted but eventually conceded and allowed a partial audit – but excluded the Armed Forces, the Police and the Secret Service. We found perhaps 10 per cent of the regular Civil Service were people without real jobs, political appointees or simply ghost workers who did not exist. Even so nothing was ever done to down size.