Election special: More of the same, but a little better
Israeli elections are all about arithmetic. The country's proportional representation system ensures that there will always be a plethora of parties and that the government will invariably be a carefully-calculated coalition. Yesterday's election followed the established pattern. It is likely to take several weeks and the usual mind-boggling political acrobatics before the next government is formed.
It is too early to make any firm predictions about the likely coalition, other than to say that Bibi Netanyahu remains the best bet for premier and that the numbers seem to rule out an undiluted right-wing government. Though the former is as welcome as cancer, the latter is a relief for anyone who believes in sanity and accommodation with the Palestinians. Not that either is guaranteed, mind you, but the odds are better than they were two days ago.
Parts of the media and spokespeople for the two big winners in the election - There is a Future in the fuzzy center and the ultra-right Jewish Home - are describing the elections are a turning-point; the start of a new era and so on. I think they're getting carried away by their own rhetoric. The elections reaffirmed what we have known for a long time: the nation is split down the middle, most Israelis don't have a strong political/ideological allegiance, there is a paucity of leadership amongst our politicians and the Israeli voter is a sucker for anyone new entering politics and chanting the slogan "change."
This time around, the white knight is Yair Lapid, a cardboard media celebrity with oily hair (though he would probably describe it as moussed) and far less brain power than he gives himself credit for. He joins a long line of wannabees, from Yigal Yadin in 1977 to Tommy Lapid (Yair's father) a decade ago. What they all have in common is that they entered politics with a fanfare, soaked up many of the floating votes looking for a tropical island, spent time in government without leaving any mark and then disappeared into the ether. Not one of the center parties that were going to change our lives still exists.
Time will tell whether Yair Lapid is any more successful than his predecessors. There's little question that he will be a key player in the next coalition and that his 19 seats, mainly secular and centrist, will moderate the budding neo-fascism of Netanyahu's Israel Our Home bloc. That in itself is welcome. And if he manages to prevent the mad-dog prime minister from attacking Iran, his contribution to the country will be commemorated in song. Conceivably, he could turn into a leader of the Arnold Schwarzenegger variety, a macho narcissist who became a celebrity by peddling shlock to the masses (in Lapid's case, kitsch journalism) and succeeded in turning it into a political career.