State of the Nation
It’s almost the end of our wet season and I thought this is a good time to review how Zimbabwe is doing and what faces us over the dry season which will run through to November.
Insofar as the season itself, we started in a terrible way – the wet season normally starts in October/November and this year we had early rains in September then extreme heat and very little rain right through to February. At that stage we were facing a harsh winter with little or no grazing and surface water shortages everywhere.
Then March arrived and the country had widespread and heavy rain. Rivers flooded and in the south of the country the grazing recovered in an amazing way. The late planted crops looked as if they would actually produce something and we cautiously raised the estimate of the maize crop from 200 000 tonnes to 350 000 tonnes. Still only a fraction of the 1,8 million tonnes we need for the country in a year. Surface water has improved but nearly all our dams are not yet full. Key supply dams are now quite healthy except for Kyle which remains well down on normal.
Kariba is fascinating to watch if you are monitoring the possible effects of climate change – the experts are saying that if the world weather system reacts the way that is anticipated, the ITCZ will shift northwards and it is expected that the areas of southern Africa that have been receiving more precipitation in the past will be wetter. In fact that is what has happened this year – the upper Zambezi catchment has received a lot of rain. The flood plains of western Zambia are at record levels and the river flow in the upper Zambezi is 60 per cent above normal.
As a consequence the Victoria Falls are roaring – the white water rafting is being restricted and the Kariba Dam is rising rapidly. We are expecting record inflows in April/May.