President Zuma vs Dep President Motlanthe vs ANCYL President Malema

In two studies conducted in the last quarter of 2011, TNS South Africa, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, looked at the support or approval levels of these three key figures and found that, amongst a sample of 2 000 metro adults (with a margin of error of less than 2½ for the total results) -

• 48% approve of the way President Zuma is doing his job (38% do not approve and 14% gave a "don't know" response);
• 47% approve of the way Deputy President Motlanthe is doing his job (25% do not and a high 28% gave a "don't know" response); but
• only 17% support what Julius Malema says and does (71% do not and 11% gave a "don't know" response).

President Zuma's support levels have shown a slow decline since his highs of 58% at the end of 2009 but levelled off in 2011 - although, in Soweto, his support levels dropped from 71% to 50% in 2011, counterbalanced by a small rise amongst Durban residents and whites, coloureds and Indians and Asians.

The approval levels for Deputy President Motlanthe have not been measured by TNS in this role; however, they were measured in 2008 when he was President: then 36% approved, 24% did not and a very high 40% said "don't know". 

The figures for Julius Malema are down from the 21% measured in mid-2010 and the 27% seen in at the end of 2009.

Not surprisingly, there are large differences between the different race groups, as well as geographically:

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The figures for Mr Zuma and Mr Motlanthe are quite similar in Gauteng and Cape Town but differ more in Durban, the Eastern Cape and Bloemfontein.  Mr Malema's figures are generally low (especially in Cape Town, Durban and East London) but much higher in Bloemfontein.

Whilst there are no gender differences for the President and the Deputy President, there are significant gender differences for Julius Malema with 20% of males supporting him compared with 15% of females.  The gender difference is particularly marked for blacks at 31% for males and 22% for females. 

In terms of age group, people aged 18 to 34 years are the most positive about President Zuma at 53% whilst those aged 60 years and more are the least positive at 40%.  In terms of language group, the most positive are those whose home language is isiZulu at 68% and Tswana speakers (63%).  Of the other black language groups, the approval level sits at 55%.

For Deputy President Motlanthe, approval levels are also higher amongst younger people (50%) compared to 35% for those aged 60 years and over.  In terms of language group, the most positive are also those whose home language is isiZulu at 62% and Tswana speakers (69%).  Of the other black language groups, the approval level sits at 61% for Sotho speakers and 47% for isiXhosa speakers

Support for Julius Malema shows a strong negative correlation with age:

• 18 to 24 year-olds - 26% (25% in 2010 and 33% in 2009))
• 25 to 34 year-olds - 22%
• 35 to 49 year olds - 13%
• 50 to 59 year-olds - 7%
• 60 years old and over - 5% (10% in 2010)

Amongst the black youth, those showing support for Mr Malema are still a minority:

• Blacks aged 18 to 24: support - 35%; do not support - 56%
• Blacks aged 25 to 29: support - 31%; do not support - 56%
• Blacks aged 30 to 34: support - 27%; do not support - 54%
• Blacks aged 35 to 39: support - 22%; do not support - 69%
• Older blacks: support - 14%; do not support - 75%

Amongst black language speakers, support levels for Julius Malema are highest amongst those whose home language is Sotho (Sepedi and Sesotho) (32%) and lowest amongst those whose home language is isiZulu (23%), the other major groups coming in at 26% (isiXhosa, Setswana).

Our take out

Approval in metro areas of the President and Deputy President is very similar, though there are some regional differences.  There are greater numbers of people sitting on the fence in the case of the Deputy President.  There is much less support for Julius Malema in metro areas, even amongst the black youth, and his support levels are declining.

Technical note

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: they have a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas.  The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS. 

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, TNS Africa, January 16 2012

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