I have often said that the only country in the world that has the power, and therefore the responsibility, to get Zimbabwe out of the crisis it is in, is South Africa. The reasons are geopolitical and easily demonstrated. It is the failure of South Africa to exercise that responsibility with the effective use of power that has resulted in this country becoming what it is - a failed State.
If we go back to the start of the real collapse in 2000, South African leadership knew full well what the government was doing in Zimbabwe and its implications. This was clearly revealed in the Mbeki memorandum of 2002 which argued that Zanu should stop the farm invasions and human rights abuse, not because it was the right thing to do, but because these actions might lead to the collapse of the economy, international isolation and the loss of power by the 'Party of the Revolution', Zanu PF. For eight years, South Africa used its regional and international influence, not to protect the rights of the Zimbabwe people or to foster the interests of the country and the region as a whole, but to prevent the MDC coming to power. What Mbeki called 'negating the Chiluba factor'.
This policy was perpetuated right through to the end of 2008 and was instrumental in not only denying the MDC its legitimate claim to power after the March elections, but to 15 months of tortuous negotiations, facilitated by South Africa on a totally partisan basis and resulting finally in forcing MDC into a shotgun marriage with Zanu PF and the Mutambara group. These negotiations were characterised throughout by a stance that pitted MDC against all three groups at the talks - South Africa, Zanu and the Mutambara Group. Having forced the consummation of the marriage, the South Africans proposed that both the AU and the SADC, even though neither organ has any leverage inside Zimbabwe, would 'guarantee' the deal.
South Africa is also unique in its knowledge of the Zimbabweans situation. After early failures in intelligence, the South Africans have built an intelligence network in Zimbabwe that is second to none. They have infiltrated the CIO and now monitor every move and every initiative by the various parties involved. They know what the real results of successive elections have been, they know the relative strengths of the MDC and Zanu PF, and they know what Zanu is doing to thwart the efforts of the transitional government. Ignorance is no excuse.
So here we are, almost exactly one month into the SADC/SA brokered deal. Still no movement on any of the issues accepted at the last SADC summit as being matters to be sorted out in order for the new government to make progress. Still no movement on the Governors, no movement on the question of Permanent Secretaries, no movement on the recall of Ambassadors and new appointments. Still no movement on the positions of Attorney General or the Reserve Bank Governor.
The farm invasions have actually intensified and spread to urban areas where smallholdings are being taken over by force. The use of the legal system to intimidate and cripple the MDC and Civil Society has continued - we still have eleven abductees missing and several still in Prison on trumped up charges. No progress on the absurd allegations by the former regime that Botswana was engaged in training military insurgents even though these allegations are directly linked to the treason charges against MDC leadership in the new government.