Cyril Ramaphosa (CR) is being strongly punted as the winner of the ANC presidency and the likeliest next president of South Africa. Whether he will beat the early front-runner, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma (NKZ), remains to be seen.
Many media commentators forget two things: Firstly, President Jacob Zuma is as wily as a fox at the political game and he will move heaven and earth to ensure – by fair means or foul – that his preferred candidate will win. And Ramaphosa is not his chosen successor; NKZ is.
Secondly, one of the iron laws of politics is that the candidate who is generally much more acceptable to those who do not vote for his party, is much less acceptable to those who do. Ramaphosa has the backing of business, of the intelligentsia and the middle class. He also has the support of the SACP and much of organised labour.
Time will tell if this axis is large enough to defeat the dumbed-down, lowest common-denominator appeal of the NDZ campaign, calculated to resonate with the poor, the unemployed, those in the rural areas and many of the current trough-feeders benefiting by the Zuma presidency. It may not occur to the millions in the NDZ camp that their financial plight is largely due to the failed economic policies pursued by the Zuma government over the past decade; the very policies that she is pledged to intensify.
For the purposes of argument, let us assume that Ramaphosa wins and becomes the new president of the ANC. Does he suddenly emerge as his own man, ready to slay the dragons or does he become another President Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe?
There is no doubt that a Ramaphosa victory would delight the Johannesburg Securities Exchange, raise the value of the Rand, increase business confidence and dramatically lift the spirits of many citizens. The question is: for how long?