One in five metro adults support Julius Malema

Support for the ex-ANC member steadies

Johannesburg, 10 May 2012: Twenty percent of metro adults support what Julius Malema says and does. This is in the same region as the 17% of September 2011, the 21% measured in mid-2010 and down on the 27% seen at the end of 2009. These figures were released today by TNS South Africa, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company. They arise from four studies, each of 2 000 adults in South Africa's seven major metropolitan areas, the latest being conducted between 13 and 24 April 2012 - just before his expulsion from the ANC was upheld by the ANC Appeals Committee. The studies have a margin of error of less than 2½% for the overall result.

In more detail, the results show that a lack of support for what he says and does is evinced by 72% (the same as last year but well up from the 56% seen in 2009). In addition, 8% gave a "don't know" response (down from 11% last year).

Not surprisingly, there are large differences between the different race groups:

• I support what Julius Malema says and does - 20% (17% in 2011 and 21% in 2010)
  • Blacks - 27% (26% in 2011 and 30% in 2010)
  • Whites - 8% (2%in 2011 and 5% in 2010)
  • Coloureds - 5% (4% in 2011 and 4% in 2010)
  •  Indians/Asians - 6% (zero in 2011 and 7% in 2010)

There are significant gender differences with 21% of males supporting Mr Malema compared with 18% of females. The gender difference is particularly marked for blacks at 29% for males and 25% for females.

Geographically, there are also notable differences, driven largely by the differing racial profiles of the different areas.

This shows an improvement in Gauteng, especially Soweto, but a decline almost everywhere else

Amongst black language speakers, support levels are highest amongst those whose home language is Setswana (36%) and the lowest are amongst those whose home language is isiXhosa (22%), with isiZulu home language speakers coming in at 25% and SeSotho speakers at 29%.

Interestingly, his support levels reach 25% amongst the unemployed, compared with 19% amongst those working.

Support shows a negative correlation with age, though there has been a loss amongst the 18 to 24-year-olds and a rise amongst the 35 to 59-year-olds:

• 18 to 24 year-olds - 21% (26% in 2011, 25% in 2010 and 33% in 2009))
• 25 to 34 year-olds - 23% (22% in 2011)
• 35 to 49 year olds - 19% (13% in 2011)
• 50 to 59 year-olds - 14% (7% in 2011)
• 60 years old and over - 6% (5% in 2011 and 10% in 2010)

Amongst the black youth, those showing support for Mr Malema are still a minority (2011 figures in brackets):

• Blacks aged 18 to 24: support - 27% (35%); do not support - 62% (56%)
• Blacks aged 25 to 29: support - 29% (31%); do not support - 62% (56%)
• Blacks aged 30 to 34: support - 25% (27%); do not support - 65% (54%)
• Blacks aged 35 to 39: support - 31% (22%); do not support - 60% (69%)
• Older blacks: support - 23% (14%); do not support - 68% (75%)

Our take out

After a consistent decline, support for Julius Malema has steadied at one in five metro adults (one in four amongst blacks). Whilst there are significant age differences, these have flattened in 2012. The unemployed show higher signs of support, as do younger blacks - but they are still a minority.

Technical note:

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 to 1290 blacks, 350 to 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample. The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas. The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS.

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, TNS South Africa, May 16 2012

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