After a rise in February, the President's approval levels drop notably in April

Volatility returns to approval levels of President Zuma

Johannesburg, 10 May 2012:  In 2009, President Zuma's approval levels in metro areas were good, averaging in the mid-fifties.  After a year of volatility during 2010, the figures were more stable in 2011, averaging 48%.  However, in the first two quarters of 2012, after a rise to 55% in February, the figure has dropped to 46% in mid-April.  This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, which has been tracking approval levels of the incumbent President for many years.  The studies are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

The February 2012 study was conducted in the last two weeks of February, whilst the latest reading was for the middle two weeks of April, just after school holidays finished but before the last long weekend in April.  It was at this time that the e-tolling saga was at its height (but before the judgement on the interdict), concerns about the re-instatement of Lt Gen Richard Mdluli were growing and the Malema suspension was finalised. 

The figures also show that the proportion of people giving a "don't know" response has dropped to more usual levels after being high since 2009 - people are coming to a more definite view of the President after a long period where many people were not sure about him.  These previously uncertain people are shifting to the negative category.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race.  This is best illustrated in the following tables:

Blacks:

Whites:

Coloureds:

Indians

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

• The latest reading for blacks, after a strong rise in February, showed a notable drop in April to the lowest figure since Sept 2010.
• The figures for whites reflect show a slow downward trend for both readings in 2012 so far.
• For coloureds, sentiment shifted positively in February but dropped back in April.
• For Indians/Asians, the trend is strongly negative.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings.  These are outlined below:

The rise in February occurred across most areas - as does the drop in April, which was particularly strong in Soweto, Pretoria, East London and Bloemfontein.  Overall, the President's approval levels are best Gauteng (except Pretoria) and poorest in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth.

Other notable differences

In terms of age group, people aged 18 to 34 years are the most positive at 51% (unchanged over the past four readings) whilst those aged 60 years and more are the least positive at 30% (down from the 40% of November 2011 and Feb 2012).   In terms of language group, the most positive are those whose home language is isiZulu at 67% (unchanged over the past four readings).  Of the other black language groups, the approval level sits at 55%.  For the first time, females are somewhat more positive than males (49% cf 43%).

Our take out

President Zuma's approval levels in metro areas, as measured in April, show a notable drop to 46% since February's 55%, the April reading being the lowest since September 2010 amongst blacks in a return to a greater level of volatility compared with 2011.  Younger people are still more favourably disposed to the President compared with other age groups. 

Deputy President Motlanthe has slightly higher approval levels than President Zuma

Black adults in metro areas are the most positive

Johannesburg, 11 May 2012: .Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe's approval levels amongst metro adults in April 2012 are slightly higher than those of President Jacob Zuma: 49% of metro adults approve of the way Deputy President Motlanthe is doing his job compared with 46% in the case of president Zuma.  However, there are more fence sitters in the case of the Deputy President.    This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company.  The studies are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

Approval levels of Kgalema Motlanthe over time

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race.  This is illustrated below:

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

Whilst blacks in metro areas have shifted more positively since the end of 2011 in terms of the Deputy President's approval levels, other race groups have shifted to slightly more negative territory. 

There are no gender differences; however, younger people are more positive (53% amongst those aged 18 to 34 compared with 39% amongst those over 50 years old.  Amongst black language speakers, those whose home language is isiXhosa are the least positive at 59% - other language groups average 69%.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings.  These are outlined below:

The only major difference between Deputy President Motlanthe's rating and Pres Zuma's rating occurs in Soweto, Pretoria and East London.  The Deputy President's rating shows a rise since the end of last year in those same areas.

Our take out

The Deputy President's rating parallels that of the President with only small differences except in Soweto, Pretoria and East London.

Technical note:

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 to 1290 blacks, 350 to 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas.  The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS. 

Statements issued by Neil Higgs, TNS South Africa, May 14 2012

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